It's so hot…. 
 
I begin this text by complaining, as a Homo sapiens pattern that is often unsatisfied. 

Although, in this case, perhaps the discomfort of having faced temperatures approaching 40°C in the city of São Paulo, in the middle of winter, makes sense from the point of view of physical sensation.  

But, I believe that this impulse to feel dissatisfied is what led us to this hot situation! 

After all, our trajectory throughout life goes through needs and all human activity generates some impact on the environment, including greenhouse gas emissions, such as, for example, our drive to consume. 

Notoriously, we exaggerate! 
 
The heat waves that have occurred recently and that have been occurring with increasing frequency, but not only those now, I add those of the last decades also accompanied by the historical series of rising global temperatures and other climatic phenomena, must be observed as a cause and effect perspective and not as a one-off event.  

And that's Science, isn't it! First, the phenomenon is observed and then investigationable hypotheses are formulated within what has already been described as knowledge, so that at a later stage, data is analyzed to assess whether the hypotheses are corroborable or not. 

The point is that we are already in 2023 and Science, a few decades ago, already showed us that the climate is changing as a result of human action, so it has already done its part. 

The key point, and I won't rain on it, is that greenhouse gas emissions are the cause of the effects we feel, such as possibly the almost 40°C in the city of São Paulo in the middle of winter. 

In this expectation that something has to be done, the member countries of the Conference of the Parties (COP) meet to discuss climate change and commit to ways to curb and eliminate greenhouse gas emissions. And there are goals!  

For those who follow the discussions, this information is already known, for those who do not, I repeat the information, the Paris Agreement or Climate Agreement, celebrated in December 2015, during COP 21, has the main objective of limiting the increase in global temperature at 1.5°C. To reach this goal, the central point is to reduce, eliminate and develop initiatives that remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. 

We reached this situation, mainly, but not only, through the use of what we call fossil fuels, which are energy sources derived from oil and mineral coal. 

Next month we will have COP 28 which will be held in the city of Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates. Interestingly, this region of the globe is the center of the largest oil production, the basis for fossil fuels and other products that we use in our daily lives, after all there are many hundreds of objects that are derived from this raw material and, directly or indirectly, we enjoy them. So, I prefer not to point the finger at anyone, it's everyone's problem and climate change is global and not local and has its historical bases. 

It has been 8 years since the Paris agreement, and I wonder if it is possible to have any good expectations to have concrete actions and attitudes related to stopping/eliminating greenhouse gas emissions. 

I started the text complaining about the heat, like a good Homo sapiens, but another intrinsic characteristic of our species is to have hope. And, if we look at what will possibly be on the table for this next COP, “maybe” I justify my feeling and here I list the following points that will be up for debate: 

1) The IPCC (scientific-political discussion group on the topic of climate) estimates that if the global average temperature rises by 1.5°C by the end of this century, climate change could cost around US$ 54 trillion ( or US$ 69 trillion if temperatures rise by 2°C). Therefore, the economic issue is a key point to be discussed and is a strong reason for countries, companies and societies to join forces, technologies and financing to face the global climate crisis. Sultan Al Jaber, the president of COP 28, wants to reach the milestone of US$ 100 billion in the climate transition fund during the meeting as set out in the goals of the Paris agreement to support the least favored nations in the climate transition.  

2) One of the main topics that will be discussed at COP 28 will be energy. After all, it is through this path that the decarbonization goal can be achieved and the balance of what has been done post-Paris will be debated. There is a very large contrast between countries in relation to energy self-sufficiency and dependence on fossil fuels, according to the Euromonitor International Global Energy Vulnerability Index. Even the main oil exporting countries have difficulties in maintaining energy supplies given the increasing industrialization. Therefore, high investments in renewable energy have been made, mainly in green hydrogen. As a trend, there is a reduction in the difference in investments made to promote fossil and renewable energy. 

3) Many countries have already carried out their respective internal carbon pricing and set sectoral guidelines to limit greenhouse gas emissions. Others are on the verge of launching their national policies, as is the case in Brazil, this movement to establish criteria will bring greater clarity and consequently legal security for investments, in addition to favoring efforts to reduce carbon emissions in companies. 

I could mention other highlights, such as, for example, greater role for companies in debates and an agenda for biodiversity and conservation of natural ecosystems that is closer to climate action agendas. However, since the beginning of the Paris agreement, debates related to replacing the fossil energy matrix with renewable energy and the organization of a global fund to support developing countries in combating climate change have continued and remain without clear definitions to date. This will possibly be the COP in which progress on these agendas will be defined. 

Note aside, due to this heat wave, I ended up saving money and bought a fan. My conclusion is that just one fan alone does not cool the summer – or now the winter/spring. However, my budget is tight and I can't buy another fan, let alone an air conditioner, I have bills to pay that are about to expire. So, I remain hopeful, but with good evidence that there is a genuine movement, not so fast, to discuss, debate and act on climate change. 

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